Now that each of the teams have one series under their belt, it’s a little more clear as to what is going on. Obviously, the one huge surprise was Memphis over San Antonio in six games – although I have never heard so many people giving so much chance to a #8 seed before the series began. Still… a #8 over a #1 in six games is pretty incredible.
A few days ago I wrote about the biggest choke jobs in history. In the NBA, the biggest almost certainly was in 2007 when #1 Dallas lost to #8 Golden State.
Both Golden State in 2007 and Memphis in 2011 had 42-40 records. Both won four games to two. Dallas had 67 wins in 2007, San Antonio had 61 wins in 2011. So, I guess you would have to say the Dallas choke was bigger than the San Antonio choke simply because Dallas had more victories during the season.
And, that also underscores how often the playoffs are about matchups. As I mentioned in my choke job post, Golden State had played Dallas three times during the regular season in 2007. They won all three and by an average of 16ppg! So, it wasn’t even as big a surprise as Memphis over San Antonio even though they split during the regular season.
I think the Grizzlies are probably better than most people realized and they did finish the second half the season very strong whereas the Spurs stumbled into the playoffs. So, the stars were aligned and an eight beat a one. What does it mean?
COOL FACTOID: Prior to the San Antonio series, Memphis had never won a single playoff game – having been swept the three previous appearances.
MEMPHIS vs OKLAHOMA CITY
Oklahoma City should have an easier second round opponent than what was expected. But, again, Memphis has proven they are no pushover and with Durant and Westbrook being a little streaky at times, they might be vulnerable.
The two teams played four times during the season and Memphis won three of the four – scoring 100+ in each game. But, it is also worth noting that Kendrick Perkins did not play in any of the games. So, whether his presence on the inside will affect Memphis ability to score in the paint (#1 in the NBA)… it remains to be determined.
Of course, Grizzly fans are lamenting more than ever the loss of Rudy Gay for the season – and who can blame them. But, they have been getting outstanding help from other players and should be able to make this a very competitive series.
My pick: OKC 4-3.
BOSTON vs MIAMI
Everyone knows the actors in this play! The obvious question is whether or not the Celtics “team” can beat the greatest collection of “individuals” of our era. I say no. But then, I’ve underestimated the Celtics before. My opinion is not based upon how good Boston is as much as it is based upon how good Miami is.
The Celtics have collapsed in the second half the season each of the four years this group has been together. But, that didn’t keep them from winning one title and almost a second. So, just because they ended 11-11 doesn’t mean you can draw a lot of conclusions from it. They did, after all, sweep the Knicks in the first round even if a couple games could have gone either way and even though Billups and Stoudemire were injured.
Miami did what they needed to do dispatching Philadelphia 4-1.
The most likely reference that you will hear is that Boston beat Miami 3-1 during the season. But, that has to be looked at in context. Boston was fortunate enough to play Miami twice within the first nine games of the season, winning once at home (+8) and once on the road (+5).
As I’ve pointed out in the past, the Heat were only 9-8 early on while trying to get familiar with each other as well as dealing with a Dwyane Wade injury. From there, they were 49-16 (62 win rate). And, after that, they played the Celtics twice – losing by three in Boston and winning by 23 late in the season in Miami when the #2 seed was at stake.
Miami has the home court advantage and I simply don’t think the Celtics can beat them. The big advantage Boston was to have was inside the paint, but I don’t think that’s going to be all that big of a deal. I think this series is going to be decided on the perimeter and driving to the basket. I don’t think it’s going to be decided by O’Neal vs Ilgauskas or even Garnett vs Bosh. It’s going to be Wade and James vs Rondo, Allen and Pierce. Wade and James are two of the best handful of players in the NBA. Rondo, Allen and Pierce are good, but not nearly that good… and I mean both offensively and defensively.
My pick: Miami 4-2.
ATLANTA vs CHICAGO
The Hawks surprised a lot of people by beating Orlando 4-2 despite a super human effort by Dwight Howard. The big question is whether it says more about Atlanta or more about Orlando. I say it says more about the Magic – that they have tremendous weaknesses apart from Howard. Consequently, I don’t give Atlanta as much credit as perhaps they deserve.
On the other hand, the Bulls were less than impressive against Indiana. They did win in five games, but the first three Chicago wins could have gone either way.
Rose had a good series, but the NBA MVP is going to be held under a microscope and with justification. No PG should be shooting 21 FGA per game! If he continues to do that, THEY WILL LOSE – if not to Atlanta, then to the winner of Boston/Miami. Rose also only hit 7.8 FG per game, so his FG% was sub 40%. That ain’t going to cut it.
Additionally, Boozer was abysmal in the series. His EFF for the playoffs so far is 12.40. Ok, “abysmal” is a little strong, but his season average was 19.85. That loss of production will be devastating unless he recovers. Deng and Noah are playing well. So, they need a little less domination by Rose and quite a bit more production out of Boozer.
Even so, Atlanta is far too skitzoid for me to pick them. They lost to the Bulls in two late-season games by 18 (road) and 33 (home). Plus, they don’t have the leadership necessary to beat Chicago. Not that Hinrich is in the category of Smith or Johnson or Crawford or Horford, but his injury is significant. He’s a glue guy on a team that needs glue badly.
My pick: Chicago 4-1.
LOS ANGELES vs DALLAS
This is a no-brainer. The Lakers are a far superior team to Dallas – assuming two things – no injuries and Bynum plays the way he’s been playing. There is no team in the league that is as talented up front with Bynum and Gasol. Dallas will get taken to the cleaners inside.
Although Nowitzki is great, his game is more of a small forward. He’s not going to bang with Gasol and Bynum – although their willingness to “bang” along with that of Odom and Artest is oftentimes a function of what kind of mood they are in.
The Lakers have been so good that they don’t always feel the need to get down and dirty, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Dallas pulled a couple games out. But I’m a believer that LA can (and will) turn it on when necessary. Now that San Antonio is out of the picture, it’s hard to see how Jackson will be able to convince his players that they aren’t a shoe-in for the finals.
Of course, Dallas has more weapons than just Nowitzki, but if LA plays shut-down defense – which they are capable of – I can’t see Kidd or Terry or Marion or Chandler making any difference. If Caron Butler hadn’t been injured… maybe. Otherwise…
My pick: LA 4-1.
