Voters appear behind Brown's special election

Gov. Jerry Brown is embarking on his plan to tame the state budget deficit with a reservoir of support, though he will have to tread lightly through voters' hostility toward taxes, according to a new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Two-thirds of Californian respondents like Brown's call for a June special election on extending temporary hikes in income, auto and sales taxes for five years, and a solid majority supports the tax plan itself. That's much stronger backing than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had for the two special elections he led in 2005 and 2009.
Californians appear to be giving the new governor some slack in his first month. Among all adults surveyed, 41 percent approve of his performance, 19 percent disapprove and 39 percent are not sure. Among likely voters, 47 percent approve, 20 percent disapprove and 33 percent are not sure.
Voters' overall mood has lifted, as well. Since October, those who feel the state is moving in the right direction has more than doubled, to 38 percent from 16 percent.
And more than half -- 52 percent -- of voters believe the new Democratic-controlled Legislature and Democratic governor can work together and accomplish a lot.
"Voters are starting the year in a more hopeful frame of mind than in the last several years," said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California, which polled 2,004 Californians, including 987 likely voters, between Jan. 11 and Jan. 18.
"All of this is pretty fragile, though," Baldassare said. "Is the economy going to hold up? Will there be so many voices in opposition that people begin to have doubts?"
Most Californians are willing to pay tax hikes to support schools, higher education and social services, while three-fourths are worried about potential spending reductions as the governor seeks to fill a $25.4 billion deficit over the next year and a half.
Strategists have said Brown can tap voters' desire to avoid school cuts by showing the dire consequences that lay ahead for K-12 programs if they reject his proposal to extend by five years temporary tax hikes on purchases, autos and income.
Still, the survey uncovered contradictions that are the hallmark of Californians and their attitudes toward government services and the money they pay for them.
On the one hand, 71 percent of all adults and 61 percent of likely voters say they support tax increases to help reduce the budget deficit and prevent cuts to schools, universities and, to a lesser degree, health and human services. Large majorities oppose cuts to these areas, which comprise 85 percent of general fund spending.
And 54 percent of likely voters support the package that Brown is hoping to put before them. Likely voters, by a 45 percent to 41 percent tally, prefer a mix of taxes and budget cuts as a way to overcome the state's deficit, with Bay Area voters in favor of a mix by a two-to-one ratio.
But two-thirds oppose raising personal income and sales taxes, while solid majorities oppose raising the auto license fee.
Since 2006, voters have rejected eight tax-increase proposals, a record that bolsters Republicans as they seek to rebuff Brown's tax plan.
"Jerry Brown has done some things outside the box like pulling cell phones (from potentially half the state employees) and that should be applauded," said Tom Del Baccaro, the vice chairman of the state Republican party. "But tax increases will fail at the ballot box for no other reason than six of the 10 highest foreclosure areas in the nation are in California. People don't have the money."
Californians would like to see corporations take the brunt of higher taxes. In a 13-point upward shift from September, 55 percent of likely voters said they liked the idea of raising the corporate tax. That is unlikely to happen, at least in a June special election, because Brown has made it clear he wants to avoid drawing big business into what would be a nasty, expensive and perhaps suicidal fight over taxes.
Brown may be succeeding in persuading voters that the state is in a fiscal crisis, and that he's dealing with it in a straightforward way, political observers said. A record 35 percent of likely voters believe the budget is the most important issue facing the state, followed closely by jobs and the economy.
A strong majority, 58 percent, are satisfied with his budget proposal, though 71 percent are concerned about the breadth of proposed cuts -- $12.5 billion in all -- to just about everything except K-12 education.
Brown's proposal to cut state worker pay by 10 percent has the approval of 55 percent of likely voters.
"People want to have explained to them logically and up front what needs to be done," said Barbara O'Connor, emeritus director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at Sacramento State. "And they want to be confident that if they agree to more taxes, there won't be more waste. His cuts, eliminations of agencies and plan to transfer authority to local governments does all that."
Nearly two-thirds of likely voters support Brown's proposal to shift programs to local governments and eliminate redevelopment agencies and enterprise zones.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percent for the total sample of all adults and was 4.2 percent for likely voters.