French Socialists, thrown into turmoil by the sex assault case against their preferred presidential contender, will meet for crisis talks on Tuesday to think about a new plan of attack for a 2012 election.
With a July deadline fast approaching to enter the Socialist selection contest, party leader Martine Aubry will urge members to close ranks and look beyond the charges against Dominique Strauss-Kahn that have shocked the world.
Until this weekend, Strauss-Kahn appeared to be the clear frontrunner to win the election and unseat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy. Opinion polls have put Sarkozy in third place behind far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
On Monday, the IMF chief was denied bail on charges he tried to rape a chambermaid in a New York hotel room. The accusations are a crushing blow for a man who has overseen world finance as head of the International Monetary Fund.
"Shattered" at the events of the past two days, Aubry told reporters Tuesday's meeting would be about pulling together and focusing on the future. She said Strauss-Kahn, who will plead not guilty, must be viewed as innocent until proven otherwise.
Aubry is under increasing pressure from fellow Socialists to declare she will contest the party's presidential primary to try to spur the Left to a presidential victory for the first time in a quarter of a century.
But her reluctance to throw her hat in the ring has led some to question her appetite for the presidential battle.
"We have a timetable and today is not the moment" to declare a candidacy, she told France Info radio on Tuesday. "We are not changing anything in our timetable" for the primary.
SARKOZY STILL FACES BATTLE
Le Pen -- who is gaining support as she plays on gloom over falling purchasing power and tension over immigrants -- stands to gain a point or two from the scandal. Sarkozy could see a similar lift, and his campaign will still focus on beating her in round one so he can face the left in a run-off.
"Sarkozy only benefits marginally from Strauss-Kahn's arrest," said Eurasia Group analyst Antonio Barroso, noting he would still suffer from centrists defecting from his camp.
With the IMF chief seen out of the running, Aubry is under pressure to throw her hat into the ring alongside former party leader Francois Hollande and come up with new ideas to match what would have been a smooth Strauss-Kahn campaign.
With Strauss-Kahn out of the picture, the left's chances of re-election rest on Hollande and Aubry, both veteran left-wing figures with a strong support base, but who may lack the sparkle and sophistication to rally the vote they need.
Aubry, 60, was the architect of France's 35-hour work week in the late 1990s and has political clout as the daughter of former European Commission President Jacques Delors.
She has support from party militants but is an uncharismatic campaigner and may struggle to find ways to fire up left-wing voters. She has also struggled as party chief to unite a party riven by divisions since its 2007 election defeat by Sarkozy.
Hollande, 56, has a weak profile as he has never been a government minister and lacks international experience.
But in Strauss-Kahn's absence he would be the favorite to run, and is judged to have better campaigning skills than Aubry. He would also outshine his former partner Segolene Royal, who lost the 2007 presidency for the left but plans another try.
A small-sample Harris Interactive opinion poll for Le Parisien daily conducted on Sunday and Monday -- the first survey since Strauss-Kahn's arrest -- found Hollande could win 49 percent backing in the Socialist primary and Aubry 23 percent.
Analysts also expect more candidates to emerge, namely former prime minister Laurent Fabius, who would be by far the weightiest contender on the left, and Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoe, who is popular for his imaginative city projects.
